What Is a Confidence Interval in Forecasting? A Clear Guide for Market Thinkers
By NeuPortal Research ·
The Problem With Point Forecasts
Most forecasts you encounter in finance give you a single number. An analyst says a stock will reach $180. A model predicts GDP growth of 2.3%. A tool outputs a price target and nothing else.
These are called **point forecasts** — a single value representing the model's best guess. They feel clean and actionable. But they quietly hide something important: how confident the model actually is in that number.
A point forecast with no uncertainty range is like a weather forecast that says
